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超级星期二预示着一场史诗般的民主党冲突

2020-03-04 15:31:26 作者： 来源：

　　洛杉矶--周日晚上，伯尼·桑德斯(Bernie Sanders)在洛杉矶得到了查克·D(Chuck D)的支持，乔·拜登(Joe Biden)在弗吉尼亚州诺福克市得到了特里·麦考利夫(查克·D是59岁的公敌创始人，自诩为强奸主义者，长期支持左翼事业。他将特朗普比作希特勒，警告大多数千禧一代有关美国企业界的问题，并演唱了该组织最著名的歌曲“对抗权力”。比尔·克林顿(BillClinton)的助手麦考利夫(McAuliffe)是前弗吉尼亚州州长，也是民主党的多产筹款人。谈到桑德斯，他对人群说：“我们不需要革命，我们需要乔拜登入主白宫。”

　　直到周六，桑德斯领导的民主党内部革命的可能性似乎非常大。他的对手四分五裂，资金拮据，几乎没有动力退出竞选，转而支持一位反对桑德斯的候选人。党的领导人因犹豫不决而陷于瘫痪。拜登看上去摇摇欲坠，却一直输掉了。但事实证明，迈克尔·布隆伯格(MichaelBloomberg)，正如两场辩论所揭示的，是虚拟彭博(Bloomberg)的一个苍白阴影。彭博在5亿美元的竞选广告中隐现出巨大的影响力。伊丽莎白·沃伦未能达到爱荷华州、新罕布什尔州和内华达州的预期。两位引人入胜的温和派，皮特·布蒂吉格和艾米·克洛布查尔，在前两个州超越了预期，但这些成功被证明是昙花一现。

　　拜登在南卡罗莱纳州获得29分的胜利，瞬间改变了这场比赛。他成了桑德斯的主要替代者，迫使三个温和派对手堵塞了他的意识形态之路，让沃伦和彭博失去了注意力，召集民主党领导人支持他的竞选活动，并通过反革命推翻了桑德斯对该党的接管。一切都发生在48小时内。

　　因此，尽管查克·D(Chuck D)和特里·M(Terry M)可能是两个相互竞争的派系的不完美化身，在今天的14个州投票时，他们试图争夺民主党的控制权--年迈的激进派与精湛的党内内部人士--但他们对两位已故七岁老人之间的一场明确而明确的提名战仍有启发：桑德斯领导的革命与拜登领导的复辟。

Slide 1 of 32: Democratic presidential hopeful former Vice President Joe Biden (L) arrives onstage with his wife Jill and sister Valerie (R) for a Super Tuesday event in Los Angeles on March 3, 2020. (Photo by FREDERIC J. BROWN / AFP) (Photo by FREDERIC J. BROWN/AFP via Getty Images)

Slide 2 of 32: Democratic U.S. presidential candidate Senator Bernie Sanders is accompanied by his wife Jane and other relatives as he arrives to speak at his Super Tuesday night rally in Essex Junction, Vermont, U.S., March 3, 2020. REUTERS/Caitlin Ochs

Slide 3 of 32: Democratic presidential candidate Mike Bloomberg waves to supporters as he arrives to his campaign rally at the Palm Beach County Convention Center in West Palm Beach, Fla., on Tuesday, March 3, 2020. (Matias J. Ocner/Miami Herald/Tribune News Service via Getty Images)

Slide 4 of 32: Voters line up at a polling station to cast their ballots during the presidential primary in Houston, Texas on Super Tuesday, March 3, 2020. - Fourteen states and American Samoa are holding presidential primary elections, with over 1400 delegates at stake. Americans vote Tuesday in primaries that play a major role in who will challenge Donald Trump for the presidency, a day after key endorsements dramatically boosted Joe Biden's hopes against surging leftist Bernie Sanders. The backing of Biden by three of his ex-rivals marked an unprecedented turn in a fractured, often bitter campaign. (Photo by Mark Felix / AFP) (Photo by MARK FELIX/AFP via Getty Images)

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Slide 5 of 32: Supporters of Democratic presidential candidate former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg attend a primary election night campaign rally Tuesday, March 3, 2020, in West Palm Beach, Fla. (AP Photo/Lynne Sladky)

Slide 6 of 32: A Mae waits as her owner Daniel Delgadillo, left, 42, casts his ballot in the Super Tuesday primary election in El Segundo, Calif., Tuesday, March 3, 2020. (AP Photo/Ringo H.W. Chiu)

Slide 7 of 32: Supporters of U.S. Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders cheer at his Super Tuesday election night rally in Essex Junction, Vermont, U.S., March 3, 2020. REUTERS/Caitlin Ochs

Slide 8 of 32: Voters wait to cast their ballots inside the Denver Elections Division's Haul-n-Vote mobile trailer in Denver, Colorado on Super Tuesday on March 3, 2020. - Fourteen states and American Samoa are holding presidential primary elections, with over 1400 delegates at stake. Americans vote Tuesday in primaries that play a major role in who will challenge Donald Trump for the presidency, a day after key endorsements dramatically boosted Joe Biden's hopes against surging leftist Bernie Sanders. The backing of Biden by three of his ex-rivals marked an unprecedented turn in a fractured, often bitter campaign. (Photo by Jason Connolly / AFP) (Photo by JASON CONNOLLY/AFP via Getty Images)

Slide 9 of 32: Voters cast their ballots for the Super Tuesday primary election at a voting center in El Segundo, Calif., Tuesday, March 3, 2020. (AP Photo/Ringo H.W. Chiu)

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Slide 10 of 32: A voter with

Slide 11 of 32: Voters cast their ballots on Super Tuesday, at a voting center at Union Station in Los Angeles, Tuesday, March 3, 2020. (AP Photo/Ringo H.W. Chiu)

Slide 12 of 32: People cast their ballots at the South Whittier Community Resource Center in Whittier, California for the presidential primary on Super Tuesday, March 3, 2020. - Thirteen states and American Samoa are holding presidential primary elections, with over 1400 delegates at stake. Americans vote Tuesday in primaries that play a major role in who will challenge Donald Trump for the presidency, a day after key endorsements dramatically boosted Joe Biden's hopes against surging leftist Bernie Sanders. The backing of Biden by three of his ex-rivals marked an unprecedented turn in a fractured, often bitter campaign. (Photo by Frederic J. BROWN / AFP) (Photo by FREDERIC J. BROWN/AFP via Getty Images)

Slide 13 of 32: Voters head to the Sam Houston State Office Building near the Texas State Capitol to cast their ballot during the Democratic presidential primary in Austin, Texas on Super Tuesday, March 3.

Slide 14 of 32: Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) picks up a ballot from the check-in counter at a polling place March 3, at Robert Miller Community Center in Burlington, Vt.

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Slide 15 of 32: Voters are seen inside a polling station on Super Tuesday on March 3 in London.

Slide 16 of 32: Dancers from a Zumba fitness class hold placards while marching through the streets of Whittier, Calif. on Super Tuesday, March 3 to a voting station to cast their ballots for the presidential primary.

Slide 17 of 32: Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) delivers remarks to supporters after casting her vote at the Graham & Parks School during the Primary Election on March 3 in Cambridge, Mass.

Slide 18 of 32: Democratic presidential candidate, former New York City mayor Mike Bloomberg greets staff and volunteers as he stops by one of his campaign offices in the Little Havana neighborhood on March 3, in Miami.

Slide 19 of 32: Voters laugh together while filling out ballots on March 3 in St. Pauls, N.C.

Slide 20 of 32: Voters cast their ballots at a voting center at Granada Park on March 3 in Alhambra, Calif.

Slide 21 of 32: Democratic 2020 U.S. presidential candidate and U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) exits a voting booth after filing out her ballot on Super Tuesday in Cambridge, Mass. on March 3.

Slide 22 of 32: Voters wait in line to cast their ballots during the presidential primary in Houston, Texas on Super Tuesday, March 3, 2020.

Slide 23 of 32: A voter walks to the poll to cast their ballot during the presidential primary in Houston, Texas on Super Tuesday, March 3, 2020.

Slide 24 of 32: Eddie Craig Monarch reviews his ballot while his dog Sherlock waits at a polling place on Super Tuesday in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, U.S., March 3, 2020.

Slide 25 of 32: Elliott Zaagman from Michigan wears his protective mask as he casts his ballot on Super Tuesday for U.S. Democrats Abroad multi-location global primary at Foreign Correspondents' Club of Thailand, Tuesday, March 3, 2020.

Slide 26 of 32: Poll worker Sandy Kiefner sets out a sign before voters arriver at a polling place on Super Tuesday in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, U.S., March 3, 2020.

Slide 27 of 32: Dallas County election worker Maxx Nunez tapes up a sign before polls open for Super Tuesday voting at John H. Reagan Elementary School in the Oak Cliff section of Dallas, Tuesday, March 3, 2020.

Slide 28 of 32: MANASSAS, VA - MARCH 02: Democratic presidential candidate, former New York City mayor Mike Bloomberg waves during a stop at one of his campaign offices on March 2, 2020 in Manassas, Virginia. Bloomberg is campaigning before voting starts tomorrow on Super Tuesday, March 3. (Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

Slide 29 of 32: Supporters of Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders take pictures in front of a large American flag before a rally Monday, March 2, 2020, in Salt Lake City. Sanders is making a stop in Salt Lake a day before Super Tuesday primaries, which Utah is a part of. (AP Photo/George Frey)

Slide 30 of 32: People arrive for the first day of early voting in Florida's 2020 presidential preference primary on March 2, 2020 at the Marks St. Senior Center in Orlando, Florida. (Photo by Paul Hennessy/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

Slide 31 of 32: A woman submits her ballot at Gurdwara Dasmesh Darbar for the California Presidential Primary ahead of Super Tuesday in Sacramento, California, U.S., March 2, 2020. REUTERS/Gabriela Bhaskar - RC2WBF9YZZDO

Slide 32 of 32: A voter places her ballot at an early voting location in the March 3 Super Tuesday primary in Laguna Woods, California, U.S., February 24, 2020. Picture taken February 24, 2020. REUTERS/Mike Blake - RC2O7F91E0Z0

　　民主党总统候选人、前副总统乔·拜登(JoeBiden，L)和妻子吉尔(Jill)和妹妹瓦莱丽(Valerie，R)将于2020年3月3日在洛杉矶参加超级星期二的活动。(弗雷德里克·布朗/法新社摄)(弗雷德里克·布朗/法新社通过盖蒂图片拍摄)

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　　民主党总统候选人、前副总统乔·拜登(JoeBiden，L)和妻子吉尔(Jill)和妹妹瓦莱丽(Valerie，R)将于3月3日在洛杉矶参加一个超级星期二的活动。

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　　阿妮塔·邓恩(Anita Dunn)在爱荷华州惨败后控制了拜登的大部分竞选活动。她认为，在2月19日拉斯维加斯辩论和2月29日南卡罗来纳州初选之间的10天里，发生了两件重要的事情，这两件事让拜登重新获得了对竞选的控制权。她说：“内华达州的辩论揭穿了这一日益增长的神话，即彭博将成为伯尼·桑德斯(Bernie Sanders)的替代品，并为这个政党所接受。”“在南卡罗来纳州的初选中，我们为许多民选官员确定了最终的反差是什么，以及这两位候选人将是谁。”

　　它花了比有时稍长的时间，但早期的初选和核心小组在筛选候选人的过程中发挥了他们的传统作用。超级星期二的比赛结果将回答一些有关比赛的重大问题。

　　首先，今天的结果将告诉我们两个主要联盟到底是什么样子。前四个小州提供了线索，但14个超级星期二州的选民总数呈指数级增长。桑德斯似乎未能在2016年的非裔美国人中获得更多的支持，但他已经在拉美裔选民中取得了进展。他在年轻选民中仍然占主导地位，在沿海和东北部做得更好。拜登是非洲裔美国人、郊区温和派、南方和老年选民的候选人。

　　这两个群体之间的许多差异是文化上的，而不是意识形态上的。但在民主党内部，就华盛顿应该追求多大范围的变革展开了一场辩论，这与分裂两大政党的辩论不相上下。民主党的温和派现在由南方年长的黑人选民支撑，他们仍然对桑德斯式的社会主义深表怀疑，而由大城市年轻激进分子推动的新左派则被拜登的渐进主义所击退。

　　桑德斯和拜登的基地之间的这种分歧可能并不容易弥合，如果一个明显的代表赢家未能出现，民主党在密尔沃基的代表大会可能会像1968年以来的任何事情一样混乱，当时反战候选人尤金·麦卡锡(Eugene McCarthy)的支持者走上街头，抗议由民主党领导的副总统休伯特·汉弗莱(Hubert Humphrey)获胜。这位最终提名人如何赢得提名，以及他(或她)如何处理另一个阵营不可避免的挫伤情绪，今年将比过去几十年更重要。

a man standing on a stage in front of a crowd: Sen. Bernie Sanders addresses thousands of supporters during a campaign rally in St. Paul, Minnesota on Monday.

　　由芯片拍摄的照片，Somode比利亚/Getty图像周一，参议员伯尼·桑德斯(Bernie Sanders)在明尼苏达州圣保罗的一次竞选集会上向数千名支持者发表讲话。

　　超级星期二的结果也将有助于澄清金钱在初选中的作用。传统观点认为，布隆伯格的巨额开支--比其他所有候选人加起来还要多--将在今天获得很少的代表。与此同时，桑德斯的竞选资金位居第二，这给他带来了重大的广告宣传活动和强劲的外勤业务。在一些州，拜登花的钱很少，组织者也很少--他有。只有一个办公室比如在整个加州。相反，他进行了为期三天的媒体宣传活动，强调了他在南卡罗来纳州的巨大胜利，以及来自布蒂吉格、克洛布查尔、贝托·奥鲁尔克等人的高调支持。在今年的其他时候，从病毒式辩论和初选或预选的胜利中获得的媒体对比赛产生了深远的影响。拜登的南卡罗莱纳州反弹有多大的变革性?如果拜登吃进桑德斯在加州和马萨诸塞州等地的据点，那么拜登作为代表领袖的日子就会结束。如果这不那么戏剧化，而且大多数州的竞选仍停留在民调显示的南卡罗来纳州之前，桑德斯可以建立一个健康的代表领先地位。

　　最后，超级星期二将考验民主党当权者是否有效地吸取了2016年的教训。当时，共和党被一个局外人接管，煽动民粹主义势力反对民选领导人。一大群候选人和分裂的反对派未能团结在一个备选方案周围来对抗入侵者。今年民主党人似乎也走上了同样的道路。(事实上，几乎所有重要的规则都改变了党自2016年以来做出的改变，无意中让叛乱分子的接管变得更容易了。)但周日和周一，有消息透露，一个国家政党，即使是权力下放、领导人较少的政党，在面临绝大多数民选官员认为是威胁的情况下，仍然可以与一位总统候选人进行协调。这种协调是否会毫无疑问地帮助拜登，或者至少在某些地方会引起对该党精英阶层的强烈反对和对桑德斯的好处?

　　最后一个问题的答案到今天结束时可能还不完全清楚。事实上，考虑到拜登在这场竞选中表现出色时所面临的问题，即使他今天超出了人们的期望，也不要排除命运的逆转。一周后，包括桑德斯在内的六个州--友好的密歇根州和华盛顿州--可能是桑德斯卷土重来的最佳时机。




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